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Jeudi 30 mars 2006

petite question de Yahoo question reponse sur l'emplois

Pourquoi la loi de l'offre et de la demande ne s'applique pas au marché du travail ?

On dit souvent que malgré le chomâge que connaît la France, il y'a plus de 500.000 postes non pourvus dans les métiers de la santé, de l'hôtellerie/restauration et du bâtiment.

Mais si la demande est forte logiquement les salaires proposés devraient grimper non ? C'est la loi de l'offre et de la demande non ?

Pourquoi n'est-ce pas le cas alors ?

Oui mais

En effet, l’offre et la demande sont des facteurs qui déterminent le marche de l’emploi tout autant que le prix des biens de consommation courantes. Cependant, des facteurs additionnels influences aussi me marché de l’emploi.

Avant toutes choses, il faut essayer de comprendre tes chiffres. Peut-être qu’il y a en effet 500.000 postes à pourvoir dans les métiers de la sante, de l’hôtellerie et du bâtiment mais ce qu’il faut regarder c’est à quel niveau qu’on en a besoin.

Je vais faire un petit schéma si dessous et ensuite vais l’expliquer ;

No d'ouvriers employés

Production total

Production marginal

revenue marginal (MPP $5)

Tu peux voir dans se tableau que plus tu as d’employé plus la production total augmente mais due auprincipe d’économie d’échelle au début plus tu emploies plus la production marginal par employé augmente. A un certain moment plus tu emplois plus cette production marginal diminue.

Jusqu'à maintenant j’ai expliqué que jusqu'à un

certain moment plus tu emplois plus la production relative par individu supplémentaire augmente mais a un moment cette tendance s’inverse et donc quand tu continues à employer plus ta production relative diminue. Donc disons qu’un pays a quatre ouvriers (production total de 22) mais à une demande de 25 ce qui demande 5 ouvriers on pourrait ce dire que en augmentant les payes on en trouvera bien un 5eme. Cependant si tu augmentes le 5eme tu dois tous les augmenter.

Disons que le prix de vente d’une unité c’est $5. Si tu fais la moyenne de ce chaque ouvrier pouvais te rapportais quand tu en avais 4 c’est $27.5 è(25+35+30+20)/4 et donc un total de total de $110 è 27.5x4. Si tu refais cette moyenne avec 5 ouvriers c’est maintenant plus que $25 (total $125).

Donc si tu payais déjà $23 par ouvriers quand tu en avais 4 l’entreprise ne faisait que $4.5 ($27.5-$23) de bénéfice par unité produite. Maintenant si tu décides que tu as besoin d’une 5eme personne et que tu augmentes tout le monde pour la trouver et que tu payes disons $24 par ouvrier tu ne gagneras plus que $1 par ouvrier ($25-$24).

Donc sur la production total avec 4 ouvriers tu gagneras $4.5x22

Faisons maintenant le calcule total : avec 4 ouvriers tu pouvais produire 22 unités et tu payais $4.5/unité. Tu avis un cout de 22x4.5 donc $99 et, comme explique si dessus un profit de $110 donc ton bénéfice total est de 110-99 soit $11.

Maintenant tu as 5 ouvriers tu les as tous augmenter et tu produits maintenant 25 unités à un prix de $5/unité. Tu fais maintenant un cout de maintenant 25x5 donc 125 et, comme explique si dessus un profit de $125 donc ton bénéfice est de 125 -125= 0.

Bon ca c’est pour le court terme, dans le long terme le prix de vente augmentera aussi donc tu pourras te permettre d’augmenter les salaires mais ca prend du temps. Donc sur le court terme les prix des salaires ne vont pas changer d’aussi tôt. Quand on dit qu’il y a 1/2 millions d’emplois à pourvoir ce n’est que fictif et théorique : ce serais mieux avec 500.000 emplois en plus mais on n’est pas prêt a payer pour (du moins pour le moment).

Je suis désole, mon français n’est pas des meilleurs donc je ne sais pas si je suis très très claire mais avec un petit peu d’effort c’est compréhensible.

Par Greg
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Mardi 17 octobre 2006

Eric Meyer

This morning, for breakfast I went with 2 other friends to a conference with the subject “Nostalgia 1987-1991: chronic of the lost ” organised by the Chamber of commerce and industry of . Well it was relatively interesting and presented by a journalist called Eric Meyer. So Mr. Meyer was presenting his last book called “Robinson a Pekin ”. It was pretty interesting but I think the guy wasn’t very awake yet and was struggling to keep on speaking and talking sense.

Well maybe that’s a bit harsh. No what I mean is that he was very good at revealing facts and giving you an idea about China in the late eighties but I was annoyed that he would not get involved in any personal opinion and thus will not analyse any situation with his own opinion. Some might tell we ask from journalist to stay objective and I’ll have to agree. But if you’re a journalist and writing a book, well I think that you could give your own opinion.

That was again quite severe, indeed, for a journalist working in china for more than 20 years it must be very difficult. You always have to be careful about your topics and your judgment to make sure that the party will not get upset and through you out of the country (even though it did not happened since 1998).

But his facts were quite interesting and it is nice to hear someone that knew before all the big events of the 80’s (i.e. Tiena****, high level of censorship, encourage denunciation…) so he has knowledge of two different ; the one before the 90s and the one after.

He’s book would apparently be in form of some letters he is writing every two month for 5 years relating the fact and the everyday life. He will describe his daily feelings, a trip in , and visits of companies organized by the Chinese government and so on.

He uses Robinson as his title as he thinks that during those year the few expats residing in Beijing had to create they own world making they own entertainment and networks. So I think it is a book worth reading and he already has some best sellers in his collection including “Sois Riche et tais-toi!”

Par Greg
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Mardi 24 octobre 2006

Mr. China

“In the early nineties, finally opened for Business and Wall Street wanted to get in on the act. When the investment bankers arrived from New York with their Harvard MBAs, pinstrips and tassled loafers, ready to negotiate with the Old Cadres, the stage was set for a collision between Wall Street’s billions and the world’s oldest culture.

This is the true story of a tough Wall Street banker who came to looking for glory. Determined to surf the next big investment wave, he teamed up with an ex-Red Guard and a Mandarin-speaking Englishman. Together, they raised over four hundred million dollars and bought up factories all over . They thought their contracts were watertight. But then they began learning the hard way that doesn’t play by anyone else’s rules. Left sitting in their own different directions, they watched as their millions slid towards the abyss.”

This text was taken from the back cover of the book.

I think this book was very interesting as it gives some insides on how china was just a few years back and how difficult it was to be part of a joint venture (which at the time was a legal obligation for any foreign investor). You can see how tricky china and its people can be. Are they still like that today? Of course not, today some of the stories you can read in the book would not be accepted. At that time doing obvious things like that was all right but today you would be sent to jail. But that doesn’t mean that will not play any tricks on you. Today might be even more vicious as you won’t be able to realize that something as gone wrong until you are out of money. Guanxi and corruption are part of the everyday life over here and for international companies who have to play in a very different market with western rules (to satisfy not only their law but also shareholder and stockholders) it can be difficult to gain real power over the Chinese company, government (local and Beijing).

In Europe , politics are politics and have not so much to say about business, over here, politic is business and business is politic. You want get anywhere in business if you don’t have the relation with the good people.

Well that is purely my opinion and might change with time and with the more I get to learn about china.

Nevertheless, I totally recommend this book, it is worth reading it. It is sometimes shocking and sometimes funny, the perfect mix.